By now is old news that Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, has withdrawn from the final run-off elections in Zimbabwe which would determine the next president of the country.

This comes after at least 70 MDC supporters have been killed. Robert Mugabe‘s answer to the “imperialist West” to the allegations that opposition supporters are being killed by mandate of the government is that the media is once again misrepresenting what is happening in Zimbabwe to justify their interference in the country.

Steve Pierson at The Standard, a political blog, says:

Military action seems to be the only option left. A smart campaign could be conducted relatively bloodlessly but it would have to be led by South Africa, the only country in the region with the standing and the military might to carry out such an action. And South Africa is showing no will to act. [http://www.thestandard.org.nz/?p=2298]

In some respects I agree with Steve. It is obvious that non-violence seems to be a tactic only the opposition are interested in. But I disagree that any military campaign conducted by South Africa against Zimbabwe will be “relatively bloodless.” I also agree that New Zealand should offer its support – but that South Africa should decline. At least initially.

I have it on relatively good authority that should a military incursion from South Africa to assist in a coup d’état degenerate into an all-out bush war (which is likely) then our army will be given a thorough shelacking. We might have the technological upper-hand and superior numbers, but our military has deteriorated significantly over the last 10 years. I would venture a guess that this is due to more pressing concerns at home than keeping a well-oiled fighting machine in reserve.

While I don’t profess to be a military genius, I do not logically see the technological advantage we have counting for much if we’re

1. Fighting in the bush; and
2. Trying to preserve innocent life.

The Zimbabwean army should also not be underestimated. I don’t know about the state of repair of the Zimbabwean air force or armoured divisions but I know that ours leaves much to be desired, mainly due to funding reasons.

Our special forces known as the Recces could be deployed to covertly assist rather than risking open warfare, but our Special Forces Regiments also suffered due to the shift in priorities that came with the changes in 1994. For instance, as part of the “military transformation process,” 1 Special Forces Regiment was disbanded in 1996.

Today I’m not coming up with solutions. The prospects in this situation look bleak. Either people continue to die or live in squalor or we send in our troops to and they die to try and prevent the Zanu-PF from killing more innocents. Today I am saying that whatever the ANC decides to do about this they have to weigh the cost in human life carefully – hardly an easy task and one that will most assuredly be met with criticism no matter which path they take:

• Try to convince Mugabe to buy into a “government of national unity” (maintain status quo). Should this fail it will appear as if the ANC have done nothing but it will likely cost fewer lives. Mugabe is unlikely to give up his seat of power, however.
• Get the AU or SADC to approve the deployment of a peace force. Should we then lose to the Zanu-PF in a bush war at least it would look like the ANC tried but failed. No matter how you slice it, a military campaign will cost more lives. The chances  of the SANDF winning a bush war against the Zanu-PF (ZNA) is unknown.

Regarding the support from New Zealand – it would be great to know that we’re not in this alone, but in the end I don’t think an African nation could accept help to depose another African government from the ‘imperial West.’ This includes funding, arms, and personnel, I think. It’s sick that politics doesn’t seem to have anything to do with making mature, well calculated decisions but with street cred.

So for the initial campaign South Africa should decline help, but once the rebuilding of Zimbabwe is underway I reckon all aid will be welcome again.

Thus ends my reply to Steve Pierson’s post. Below is just a little bit more added for flavour.

In an article on News24 it is reported that Henri Boshoff, of the Institute for Security Studies said that a UN peace mission requires that a resolution to the effect being adopted and this could only happen if the host nation requests it or there is evidence of gross human rights violations. In the latter case (which most everyone is willing to agree on) the UN will still use a regional organisation like SADC or the AU for peace enforcement. According to the article it is very unlikely SADC or the AU will condone the deployment of troops in the region because of their individual policies on interference.

Karin Alexander of the Institute for Democracy in South Africa who is currently in Zimbabwe went so far as to say that deployment a peace force was an unlikely solution because Mugabe’s possible response created risks.

This basically means that a military campaign into Zim is out of the question for the ANC for the time being.

The Minister of Provinial and Local Government, Sydney Mufamadi and Thabo Mbeki’s legal advisor, Mojanku Gumbi are in Harare at the moment to discuss the “goverment of national unity” with Mugabe. I guess we’ll have to see what results our diplomatic efforts and the elections on Friday yield before grabbing our guns.

History has a funny way of repeating itself, though, and Robert Mugabe has shown very little inclination to relinquish his presidency. I guess the question is not if diplomacy fails and Mugabe is re-elected but when? And what will the ‘imperialist West’ do if South Africa, SADC, and the AU disappoints again? Will they risk the repercussions of interfering in African affairs?

For those that don’t know, Niemand is a South African rock band whose members are all Christian. I’ve received two mails from Joe in light of the ‘Xenophobic attacks’ in Johannesburg. They are truly powerful and one of the few non-humorous mails I feel are worth forwarding.

Hi Guys

We have just returned from Jeppe Police Station in town where approx 2000 refugees are crammed into the backyard. This is just one of many stations swamped.

Thank you for the incredible response in terms of donations and volunteers.

You have once again proved that people just want to know how they can help to make a difference and get involved.

Seeing as Government has not responded on ground level with any plan to resolve this crisis, it is up to volunteers and donators to feed these people. The police who are already stretched beyond their limits are doing their utmost to care for these people in terms of toilets, food and blankets. They are overworked and with no end in sight, the situation can only worsen.

It just started raining.. That is going to be a big problem for all these people who are outside in this cold weather.

For the few of you upset by this initiative, I apologise if one of these mails slips through to you. On that point, when we arrived at the police station on Wednesday a child had just passed away. That child did not choose to be there.

There are babies, children, pregnant woman, illegal immigrants, legal immigrants and criminals all bunched together, they are all being treated the same. We are not there to pick sides or say who is who. The fact of the matter is that there are surely those who were attacked for good reason, but blind hate has been poured over many, many innocent and legal foreigners as well.

The circumstances around the xenophobic attacks are so complex, that anyone trying to pin it down to one thing is being presumptuous. The fear, frustration and hate that broke out into violence like this can be traced back to many factors. People are unsafe, unemployed and leaderless.

We are not there because we feel that illegal immigrants should be allowed in this country. We are not there because we have a political angle on this or because we don’t feel that foreign syndicates are a problem. Our reason for getting involved is purely because we came together on Monday night and as a band decided that seeing a man being burnt alive in our city is not acceptable.

No matter who he is.

We don’t have the time to discuss this with people who say that many people are murdered, why jump at helping the foreigners?

My only answer to that is that I personally have removed myself from what is going on in this country for long enough. For long enough have I avoided the news because “it’s always bad.” We have become so detached from our reality that it took the photograph of a man burning alive to make an impression on me. So if it takes the attacks on foreigners in this way to ignite us into action, so be it

On a practical note:

Feeding people is great but we feel that actually moving people out of danger and back to their countries is the only way to resolution. We can’t force people to return home and we can’t do it on our own. So because the Mozambican government has an initiative to move their people we are working with them. We are still volunteering with food and relief and the response of people that want to help has been overwhelming. We will use RAOK as a rally point for initiatives and resources. We will make and take suggestions and do what we can where we can.

We have to start somewhere. We have to start sometime.

We have to snap back to reality. Get out of our Playstation, DSTV, Facebook lives that only amount to us trying to escape boredom.

There is more to life.

We started moving the first Mozambicans last night in cooperation with the Mozambican Consulate General in Johannesburg. Please keep everyone on the ground in your thoughts and prayers.

We will send out updates on needs as they arise. Currently there is a desperate need for:

• Purity
• Water
• Toilet Paper
• Nan 3
• Blankets
• Black bags
• Cups and paper plates

Please do not call us, we don’t have the capacity to take all the calls coming in. Mail us at istell@niemand.co.za if you want to volunteer or donate.

Thank you

Joe

The mail is an abridged version of a larger letter that is available here. I think the edited letter is much more focussed on addressing those opposed to providing aid to the foreigners affected by the attacks. The message is a little diluted in the full letter. I still think that Joe’s full letter is a worthy read and an honest statement of personal belief that more South Africans should read.

It’s not a one-sided South Africa sucks so bad or a South Africa rocks so hard? view, but a realistic (if passionate) take on some of the major problems in the country backed by a desire to enact change for the better.

I disagree on a few technicalities but in principle I think Joe and I would see eye-to-eye on many issues. The letter will cause many people to shift uncomfortably in their seats like so many other emotive pieces on the Internet. I guess the only difference here is that it’s closer to home which means it’s that much easier to get out there and make a difference.

Here‘s a typical report blaming every problem in South Africa for the violence. It’s not entirely wrong and probably represents popular opinion of South Africa at the moment. What people don’t see is what is being done, what we are doing to help.

Feel free to weigh in.

It can be in a car, airplane, train, bus. Just as long as you’re not driving. It’s probably the time I’m most creative. I sit there with my head against the window in pensive reverie, contemplating any and all things in whatever order they enter my mind. Normally I wish for at least a piece of paper and pen to write down everything that penetrates my contemplative trance but I know that trying to record anything would just interrupt it.

A favourite poem of mine comes to mind.

I heard a thousand blended notes
While in a grove a sate reclined
In that sweet mood when pleasant thoughts
Bring sad thoughts to the mind.

— William Wordsworth, Lines written in early spring

It is in these daydream states that I explore my musings and prepare them for writing here. Yet when I sit down to type the random thoughts refuse to be beaten into a structure of paragraphs and sentences. It takes ages to shape them into something I’m willing to put my name to.

So I guess, this post is an elaborate apology, and explanation, for why there is not more activity here of late. There are 5 or more incomplete posts lying in the drafts section and they simply refuse to become publish-worthy. Those that know me know that this consternation is just about par for the course anyway.

Writing about not writing. What a novel idea.

Upon discovering that I’m South African the American expresses a desire to learn more of South Africa as he will be visiting the place soon on business. Unfortunately I only had about 2 minutes to this guy’s next stop. All I got to talk about was the crime and where not to go and when not to go there. I had to field questions such as “Is it really that bad?” I tried to reassure him that his contact person(s) in South Africa would know all these things, take good care of him, and that he should listen to their advice about in and around Johannesburg. And then we were at his stop.

Which brings me to our first interactive session. A challenge! You have 2 minutes to tell a foreigner travelling to South Africa about it. You know where he’s going and for the purposes of this challenge you may choose any city/province/region. Go!

Steven Biko, Neil Aggett, Victoria Mxenge, Albert Luthuli, Chris Hani, Hector Pieterson, Nkosi Johnson.

“Asimbonang ‘umfowethu thina
Laph’ekhona
Laph’wafela khona.”
— Asimbonanga, Johnny Clegg —

“(we have not seen our brother
In the place where he is
In the place where he died)”

To those who lived through pain, but got to see the fruits of their toil:

Nelson Mandela, our icon.
Oom Bey, the Afrikaner who stood against his own people. The minister that stood against his own religious order and remained faithful to Christ.
OR Tambo, Joe Slovo.

“O Siyeza, o siyeza , sizofika webaba noma
O siyeza, o siyeza, siyagudle lomhlaba
Siyawela lapheshaya lulezontaba ezimnyama
Lapha sobheka phansi konke ukhulupheka.”
— The Crossing (Osiyeza) Johnny Clegg —

“(we are coming, we are coming, we will arrive soon
we are coming, we are coming, we are moving across this earth
we are crossing over those dark mountains
where we will lay down our troubles)”